NBA PREVIEW : A SEASON OF NO EXPECTATIONS CAN SPUR WASHINGTON TO THE POOLE
The Washington Wizards have not won 50 games or more in an NBA season since 1979. That not-so-fun fact almost feels made-up, but it’s true. Beyond that, the Wizards have only one playoff appearance in the last five seasons, losing to the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round of the 2021 postseason, and Washington has not finished a season above the .500 mark since Marcin Gortat appeared in all 82 games for the 2017-18 squad. Needless to say, the operating mindset of “aim for the play-in” did not bear considerable fruit for the Wizards but, beginning with the 2023 offseason, everything appears to be different in the nation’s capital.
The Warriors pretty much made the decision to give Jordan Poole away, but there are reasons to believe he’ll be better in a new situation. Poole, who averaged 18.5 points per game in 2021-22 and 20.4 points per game in 2022-23, no longer has to try to fit in. This will be his show in Washington and that should bring out the best in him offensively — even if he will no longer have the luxury of all-world spacing playing next to Steph Curry and Klay Thompson.
Poole should get his career back on track as more of a main option, and it isn’t outrageous to think that he’ll flirt with 25.0 points per game this year. The question is whether Wes Unseld Jr. can get him to buy in defensively. A lot of Golden State’s key players have openly talked about Poole’s lack of commitment on that end of the floor — with Andre Iguodala opening up about it just a few weeks before the start of this new season. If he never gives defense the old college try, the second half of his career will consist of him floating from team to team as a microwave scorer off the bench. And with a roster this low on talent, it’s going to be hard to win games if Poole isn’t at least trying to play winning basketball.
I’m actually somewhat interested in seeing what a five-man unit with Poole, Tyus Jones, Corey Kispert, Kyle Kuzma and Daniel Gafford looks like. Jones was always a calming presence on both ends of the floor when the Memphis Grizzlies needed him to play big minutes, and he’s a good fit next to a guy like Poole. Jones competes hard and focuses on making the right play. The Wizards can use some of that next to the not-so-organized chaos Poole brings to the floor. Meanwhile, Kispert is a marksman from deep, as he shot 42.4% from the outside last year. He’s also a good off-ball mover, and he doesn’t kill you on the other end of the floor either. As for Kuzma, the small-ball four played his way into a four-year, $102 million deal last year. He averaged 21.2 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game last season, and he has really grown into a potent scorer. And Gafford is just a good pick-and-roll big that can finish at the basket and play a little defense. So, that group would have a little bit of everything and could be competitive in spurts.
Washington also has two proven bench pieces in Delon Wright and Deni Avdija. Wright is a study ball handler offensively and one of the league’s premier perimeter defenders on the other end of the floor. There’s a good chance he’ll close out some games for the Wizards, as Unseld could opt to have him defending next to Poole in big moments. And Avdija is a jack of all trades, master of none. He’s a guy who can excel in a number of different lineups, as he plays hard on both ends, handles the ball well for a forward and can facilitate a little bit. If his jumper ever ends up coming along, he’ll eventually catch on as a starter.
The big question for the Wizards is what they’ll get out of second-year guard Johnny Davis and rookie wing Bilal Coulibaly. Davis is a good perimeter defender, but that’s all he is at this point. His scoring hasn’t translated at all at this level, and he’s not going to make much of an offensive impact without significantly improving as a shooter. Meanwhile, Coulibaly is a very raw prospect. He likely has the ability to impact games defensively because of his athleticism, length and ranginess as a 6-foot-6 guard. He also has good instincts on that end of the floor. But his offensive game might take a while to come along, so he likely isn’t looking at anything more than 18-20 minutes per game as a rookie.
Overall, Unseld is in an unenviable position with this team. The roster isn’t quite barren, but there aren’t any All-Stars here. And realistically, guys like Poole and Kuzma are better served as the fourth options on good teams, yet they’re thrown into starring roles here. Washington is going to be at a significant disadvantage when it comes to talent on a nightly basis. And having a roster that is something of an island of misfit toys is going to make it difficult for Unseld to impose his will on the team. I’m not exactly sure what style of play would make the most sense with a roster like this offensively. And even if Unseld puts one in place, will it work with gunners like Poole and Kuzma out there?
It’s also just hard to ignore the amount of turnover there was with this team from last season to this season. Washington is going to enter this year with very little continuity, which is yet another thing working against them. So, not only is this the roster with the least talent in the entire league, but it’s also a group that will be lacking structure and identity.
Biggest Question: Who Are The Building Blocks Of The Next Great Wizards Team?
At first blush, Washington’s rotation could be quite respectable in 2023-24. The high-end talent isn’t really there for the Wizards, but Washington may field an entire 10-man group on opening night that is filled with real NBA rotation players. The issue is that most of them are probably best suited for reserve roles, with only Kyle Kuzma and maybe Jordan Poole bringing the pedigree associated with highly productive starters. Of course, Washington could also lean into the void during the season, playing young guys more and more in search of information and ping-pong balls, and there are many reasons why the Wizards are projected for the league’s lowest win total.
The big question stemming from that jumbled landscape is, essentially, who “the guys” are for Washington. Kuzma is the team’s best player, but the 28-year-old is likely miscast as one of the top two or three players on a real playoff team, and when he re-signed in Washington, it almost came with an immediate countdown to trade eligibility. Poole was essentially salary dumped by Golden State and, while he likely is better than he showed during a brutal 2022-23 season, the former Michigan guard may be ideally cast as a high-usage sixth man type on a good team, much as he was with the Warriors.
Kuzma and Poole will almost assuredly sit atop the team’s pecking order when it comes to scoring and usage, but this is also an information gathering season. What is former lottery pick Johnny Davis? What about former first-round pick Corey Kispert, who has shown himself capable of a rotation role but may be looking for more? How ’bout Daniel Gafford, who has plenty of highlights and flashes at the center spot? Finally, there should be quite a bit of attention paid to Bilal Coulibaly. For a lot of teams, the 19-year-old probably wouldn’t be ready for a rotation role, but Coulibaly was the No. 7 pick for a rebuilding team and, even if he is clearly a long-term play, Washington will want to see him on the court at some point soon. In the end, it’s all about identification and evaluation because, with all due respect to a bunch of really respectable veterans in Delon Wright, Tyus Jones, Taj Gibson, Mike Muscala, and Landry Shamet, this season isn’t really about them for Washington.
PLAYER WATCH
DENI AVDIJA
Deni Avdija fits snugly alongside Davis, Kispert, and others with regard to Washington’s biggest question, but he gets his own section for a few reasons. For one, Avdija is extension-eligible before his fourth season, and the former No. 9 pick remains something of an enigma. The pitch on Avdija as a draft prospect centered on his abilities as a versatile connecting forward that every team seeks and, in some ways, he has shown signs of being that. On the other hand, Avdija can be a tough fit on offense, shooting 31 percent (on few attempts) from three-point range in his career and settling into a very low-usage role.
On defense, the 6’9 forward is an effective cog, but he isn’t dominant. He also overlaps a bit with Kuzma positionally, and the two don’t make the greatest tandem at the forward spots given some overlapping limitations. It would be fair to project Avdija as a long-time NBA player, and he has proven to be a rotation-caliber entity through three seasons, but Washington was undoubtedly looking for more from a top-10 pick. While it is too early to close the book entirely on Davis from the 2022 Draft, that pick isn’t looking fantastic and, as noted above, Kispert is probably bound for a life as a pure role player. Washington’s Draft history is checkered at best but, independent of that, it could be a revealing year for Avdija and how the franchise views his long-term future.
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