CAN THE KINGS ADJUST TO NEW EXPECTATIONS?

The Kings are hoping to turn their 2022-23 cinematic masterpiece into long-term success in the NBA, and next season will be telling if they’re on the right track.

Sacramento took the NBA by storm last season when it romped through the regular season, won 48 games and took the third seed in the Western Conference.

To say that the Kings’ season was pleasantly surprising would be really understating the fact that they had a tremendous year. The Sacramento Kings’ season was a roaring success under new head coach Mike Brown, who came over from Golden State to help guide the Kings to the playoffs this year. Domantas Sabonis took the next step and became a bonafide star player and cornerstone to their franchise.

Mike Brown came from Golden State to help guide the Kings to the playoffs last season .

First and foremost, the Kings were very fortunate when it came to player health. They lost the fewest games to injury, according to Man Games Lost which tracks win shares lost due to injured players. Their top eight players in terms of minutes played appeared in at least 73 games last season. That is near-perfect injury luck for a team, and it is unlikely it will repeat itself.

Sacramento also consistently came out on top in games that entered clutch minutes — games within five with five or fewer minutes left — and those wins tend to regress by season. The Kings were 25-19 SU in games that entered clutch time, and they outscored opponents by 10.0 points per 100 possessions in those situations. They led the league in overall field goal percentage in clutch time (50.7%), and De’Aaron Fox even won the inaugural Jerry West Trophy which is given to the best clutch player.

If we factor in a regression of both health and clutch wins then it gets you to where the market has Sacramento heading into the season, and should those two things regress to the mean then the Kings will have to deal with having a subpar defense.

Sacramento finished the regular season 25th in non-garbage time defensive rating after allowing 117.3 points per 100 possessions. Despite having the best offense in the league they only had a +2.4 net rating, thus the massive amounts of clutch games. That defense is not going to get much better this season. So if we get the assumed regression in clutch games (of which the Kings played 44), then the case for a slip down the standings becomes even stronger for Sacramento this season.

Their biggest weakness on defense was rim protection, and it stemmed from having weak perimeter defenders without a rim-protecting center. Opponents took 33.5% of their attempts within four feet against the Kings, and on those attempts, they shot 69.0%, according to Cleaning The Glass. In halfcourt settings, Sacramento allowed the third most points per 100 plays (102.0).

Outscoring opponents in one-possession games on a nightly basis might work over the course of a single season, but it generally isn’t a recipe for long-term success. Still, this offense will be one of the best in the NBA again next season.

De’Aaron Fox has been a very good complementary piece that has provided strong scoring and playmaking skills. The Kings also got great contributions from Kevin Huerter, who provided strong shooting and versatility, and they got a great bargain by trading for him while dealing away very little in the process. They also drafted well and got a solid year from rookie forward Keegan Murray, and signing Malik Monk was also a nice move, as he provided some much needed scoring punch and camaraderie, as he was also Fox’s college teammate, which definitely helped their team chemistry. The Kings were able to get the third seed in the playoffs, but they lost in a tough, hard-fought first round series against the then-defending champions, Golden State Warriors in seven games.

Last season when Fox and Domantas Sabonis shared the floor Sacramento averaged 123.8 points per 100 possessions. That offensive rating ranked in the 97th percentile of lineups, according to Cleaning The Glass, and both their turnover rate (12.2%) and effective field goal percentage (58.2%) with those two ranked in the 92nd and 94th percentile respectively. When Malik Monk was added to the mix, that offensive rating was 131.1 which ranked in the 100th percentile.

All three of those offensive dynamos return this season, as does the vast majority of this offense. That should equate to the Kings once again being one of the best offensive teams in the league, but do not get that twisted with being an Over team.

Sacramento was just 40-39-3 to the Over in the regular season, and much of that had to do with some dramatic home and road splits. At home, the Kings were 27-17-1 to the over if you include the postseason series with Golden State. However, they were 16-26-2 to the under on the road, due to a less efficient offense and a much more efficient defense. In fact, they had the eighth-best defensive efficiency away from home this season (113.8).

It seems like an anomaly for a team that is as poor as they are on that end of the floor, but it is something to monitor as we head into the new year.

Positive Residual has Sacramento with the third-highest strength of schedule in the NBA. The Kings might have the second-most rest advantages this season, but they have the second-most rest disadvantages as well. They are also among the nine teams with 15 back-to-backs on the schedule, and they must travel the fifth most miles in the league.

Nine of their first 14 games are also on the road, meaning those who like Sacramento’s win total to go over could wait until Nov. 28 when they begin a stretch that sees the team play 10 of 11 games at home.

Having said that, this is not a guide that believes the Kings will have an opportunity to go over their win total. There are too many signs of regression for Sacramento this season, the schedule is challenging, and the opposition is better. That all should add up to a depressed record for the Kings this season.

NBA PREVIEW : LIFE AFTER LILLARD REMAINS UNCLEAR IN PORTLAND

While the league continues to sleep on Sacramento’s offseason moves, the Kings’ depth might come as a surprise, too.

Sacramento arguably has one of the best benches in the NBA for the upcoming season.

The starting five presumably will remain the same as last season’s: De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Keegan Murray, Harrison Barnes, Domantas Sabonis. If that is the case, Malik Monk likely has the Sixth Man spot on lock, and the rotations and different lineups Mike Brown implements thereafter will be interesting.

Guard depth includes Davion Mitchell, Chris Duarte, Colby Jones and Keon Ellis (two-way).

Duarte and Jones are new to Sacramento, but Mitchell and Ellis have shown in glimpses what they are capable of. Mitchell, in particular, is poised for a big jump in Year 3 with the Kings. His defensive intensity was huge for the team last year, especially in the Kings’ first-round playoff series against the Golden State Warriors, when he was tasked with the challenge of guarding Steph Curry. He practically has lived in the gym all summer working on his jumper, the one thing that’s kept him off the court at times. If his offense can back up his defense, he’ll be a lethal option for the Kings off the bench.

At forward behind Murray and Barnes, the Kings added European superstar Sasha Vezenkov, re-signed Trey Lyles, picked up Kessler Edwards’ option and drafted Jalen Slawson (two-way).

Kings added European superstar and Euroleague MVP, Sasha Vezenkov this off-season

Vezenkov will face the biggest test of his career as he enters the NBA following a EuroLeague MVP campaign. He has a lot to prove in his first season in the league, but the hype around him has yet to disappoint.

Lyles captured the hearts of many Kings fans during his heartwarming postseason plea, when he told reporters after Sacramento’s Game 7 loss that he’d love to return to the 916 for the 2023-24 season. He got his wish, and he’ll be reunited with fellow Kentucky Wildcats Fox and Monk for at least another season.

Trey Lyles captured hearts with his spirited performances last season

Last season, Brown had trouble finding a reliable backup option at center. He experimented endlessly with Lyles, Alex Len and former Kings big men Chimezie Metu and Richaun Holmes. Len saw increased minutes toward the end of the season and during the playoffs, and Lyles was inserted during small-ball lineups that proved to work.

Len and Lyles’ impact was rewarded by the Kings bringing them back, in addition to Sacramento signing 6-foot-10 center Nerlens Noel, 7-footer Neemias Queta and also reuniting with Skal Labissiere this offseason.

PLAYER WATCH

KEEGAN MURRAY

After a season full of picking up the team’s Chick-Fil-A tabs during road games, Keegan Murray’s chicken duties are no longer.

Entering a pivotal sophomore season, Murray’s rookie expectations have become Year 2 musts.

Murray was one of the most impactful rookies last season. He started on a playoff team, broke the rookie 3-point record, was named to the All-Rookie First Team and finished fifth in Rookie of the Year voting.

He averaged 12.2 points on 45.3-percent shooting from the field and 41.1 percent from 3-point range last season. In the Kings’ final four playoff games against the Warriors, Murray averaged 14.5 points on 51.1-percent shooting from the field and 45.8 percent from downtown, along with eight rebounds and one assist per contest.

And that was just the beginning.

Murray’s sophomore leap will be integral to the Kings sustaining their newfound success. General manager Monte McNair and the Kings aren’t hoping for it to happen – they’re depending on it.

“We know we need Keegan to take another step,” McNair said in an exclusive interview with The Athletic’s Anthony Slater and Sam Amick. “And one of the ways he can do that is to be more of a second or third option as opposed to a fourth or fifth option.”

Even after an impressive first NBA season, the 23-year-old opted to play in the Kings’ first two summer league games last month. Why? Brown wanted Murray to continue to work on his game, and Murray agreed.

Murray balled out in the California Classic at Golden 1 Center, dropping 41 points on 55-percent shooting from the field and 54.5 percent from deep in the second game, a 95-83 win over the Miami Heat.