NBA PREVIEW : A NEW LEASE OF LIFE FOR THE HORNETS, CAN THEY CRACK THE PLAYOFFS?

The Charlotte Hornets had a putrid 2022-23 season. The team won only 27 games and star point guard LaMelo Ball was limited to just 36 games due to injury.

The Hornets haven’t made the playoffs since 2016. They drafted Brandon Miller out of Alabama with the second overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. Charlotte’s front office is hopeful that Miller can turn into an All-Star like Ball and help the franchise snap its postseason drought sooner rather than later.

The expectations are not high for the Charlotte Hornets in the upcoming 2023-24 NBA season, but will they surpass their low projected win total?

The combination of Mark Williams and Nick Richards at the center position does not necessarily inspire much confidence. While Williams was somewhat impressive in his 18 games as a starter, that is not nearly enough of a sample size to bet on that being repeatable. Richards did improve in his third year but is still far from being considered a lock to be an impactful NBA player.

Ending up with more wins than last year or their projected total is not exactly an accomplishment. The Hornets have talent on their roster and should be able to reach the 31-win threshold at minimum as long as enough things go their way. The problem is the season playing out in this manner is not exactly a guarantee. And with last year’s disastrous campaign still on everyone’s mind, any skepticism about them being successful is not unfounded.

Hornets head coach Steve Clifford will have some tough decisions to make when it comes to his starting lineup since a few veterans could be benched.

STAR WATCH

LAMELO BALL

The Hornets drafted LaMelo Ball with the third overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft. The younger brother of Chicago Bulls point guard Lonzo Ball averaged 23.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 8.4 assists last season while shooting 41.1% from the field, 37.6% from beyond the arc and 83.6% from the free-throw line. LaMelo recorded 17 double-doubles and three triple-doubles in 36 starts.

LaMelo made the All-Star team in 2022 and won the 2020-21 Rookie of the Year Award. He only appeared in 36 games last season due to a fractured right ankle, but that didn’t stop the Hornets from giving the youngster a five-year contract extension worth up to $260 million. LaMelo has already established himself as one of the top playmakers in the NBA, and the hopes of a Hornet good season hinges on his shoulders.

TERRY ROZIER

Terry Rozier signed a four-year, $96 million contract with the Hornets in August 2021. He’ll make $23 million next season. The 29-year-old scoring guard averaged 21.1 points and 5.1 assists in 2022-23 while shooting 41.5% from the floor, 32.7% from beyond the arc and 80.9% from the free-throw line.

Many people around the NBA believe the Hornets should trade Rozier to free up more chances for Ball. Rozier is a fairly ball-dominant player, as he had a 26.9 usage percentage last season. That was more than Miami Heat small forward Jimmy Butler, Utah Jazz power forward Lauri Markkanen, Denver Nuggets point guard Jamal Murray, and Philadelphia 76ers guard James Harden (just to name a few).

WEAKNESSES AND STRENGTHS

Strengths

1) Transition Offense – Over the last two seasons Charlotte has ranked on average 4th in transition frequency and 12th in transition efficiency. I expect those numbers both to be top 3 in the league for the upcoming season. Despite Ball being the straw that stirs the drink, this team is full of transition weapons. Mark Williams was known as a fantastic transition rim runner in college, Miles Bridges is an elite transition finisher, and Rozier and Miller both excel as trailing transition shooters from outside the arc.

2) Sharing the Basketball – Charlotte are top 10 in assists per game if you count the past two seasons. This team is built to move the ball, with good playmakers at every position besides center. Fans often reminisce about star-focused offenses such as the Jordan Bulls and Kobe Lakers, but in 2023 offensive balance and unselfishness are king. The Warriors, Spurs, and Nuggets have built championships on multi-faceted offenses that have worn down opponents through their collective effort as opposed to a single all-star. At times offenses with high passing numbers can signal a lack of offensive impetus and direction, but I don’t expect that to be the case for Charlotte. I project the Hornets to be top five in assists and passes per game in the NBA this season.

3) Defensive Transition – The 2022-23 Hornets were bad at a lot of things, but defensive transition wasn’t one of them. Charlotte ranked 1st in defensive transition last season per Cleaning The Glass and finished 7th in transition frequency. Defensive transition is a fundamental element of Steve Clifford’s coaching philosophy and it’s expected to remain a strong suit for the team in the upcoming season.

4) Wing/Forward depth – Charlotte has four starter-level players in their small and power forward rotation; Gordon Hayward, Miles Bridges, Brandon Miller, and PJ Washington make up the deepest group of forwards in franchise history. It may lack star power, but the lineup versatility and depth for potential injuries safeguard it from a repeat of the 22-23 season. Don’t forget about JT Thor, he was a breakout player in the latter half of last season and was clearly a favorite of head coach Steve Clifford.

Weaknesses

1) Foul Drawing – Over recent years the Hornets have been young and inexperienced, this has contributed to ranking on average just 27th in free throw rate. The team has struggled to demonstrate the physicality, basketball IQ, and savvy needed to consistently earn trips to the foul line. Unfortunately, the ongoing injury concerns with LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller’s avoidance of physical contact don’t give me much confidence that this aspect of their game will see significant improvement. I expect this to be a particular area of focus for the coaching staff in training camp, there’s nothing Clifford likes more than someone getting to the free-throw line.

2) Finishing at the Rim – Over the last two seasons, Charlotte’s young core has consistently attempted shots at the rim at one of the highest rates in the league, ranking 3rd in this aspect. However, they’ve struggled in terms of efficiency, ranking just 29th. This inefficiency is often a result of poor shot selection, attempting to finish through shot blockers or through multiple help defenders. With most of the same roster, there continues to be a lack of competent rim finishing.

3) Guard Depth – If LaMelo Ball or Terry Rozier are missing for an extended amount of time, I have concerns around the team’s lead playmaker. Don’t get me wrong, I like Miller, Bridges, and Haward as oversized creators for their position, but they aren’t ready to handle lead ball handling duties night after night. If Frank Ntilikina or Nick Smith Jr emerge, then this issue goes away but I’m skeptical of either being ready to play that role this year.

4) Veteran Leadership – At the start of the 2023 off-season Mitch Kupchak said “For the last couple years, it’s fallen to the coach to be the leader. We’re looking for somebody in the locker room who can fill that role.” Fast forward to the new season and the Hornets roster still has a leadership void. The Hornets core has faced a lengthy list of off-court drama over the past three seasons. It’s foolish to think one player could solve all of that, but a more vocal leader who players could look up to would help.