NBA PREVIEW : DENVER NUGGETS ARE RUNNING IT AGAIN.
As the 2023 NBA offseason comes to a close, the Denver Nuggets are preparing to defend their championship belt.
For the first time in NBA history, the other 29 teams are going into the regular season trying to knock the Denver Nuggets off of their perch atop the league. After never quite being able to get over the hump during Nikola Jokic’s tenure in the Mile High City, Denver finally made it to the NBA Finals and did not disappoint, knocking off the Miami Heat in five games to earn the right to lift the Larry O’Brien trophy.
With a few exceptions, the Nuggets opted to largely run it back this year, and how can anyone blame them? The team has the best starting five in the league, they’re battle tested, they have the best home-court advantage in the league, and they seem to relish the big occasion. While the team has one or two little concerns, it’s an exciting time to be a fan of the Denver Nuggets.
MISSING PIECES?
Though the Nuggets won a championship and bring back their entire starting five, there are still questions about the rotation and depth.
The tricky thing about the Nuggets is that we know so much about them. The team is running it back with the starting five that got them a ring — Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic — while head coach Michael Malone is still in town. That starting group gives them a floor that, barring injury, no other team can match.
If there is a problem, it revolves around the fact that two key pieces of the puzzle from last year are no longer here. After one season with the team, Brown cashed in on his brilliant 2022-23 campaign by signing a lucrative, 2-year deal with the Indiana Pacers. Green was ultra reliable and steady for the team during his two years in Denver, he’s now a member of the Houston Rockets. Their contributions to what the Nuggets accomplished last season can’t really be overstated, as they were effective cogs in the machine on offense who were willing to take on difficult assignments on defense.
Versatile guard/wing Bruce Brown played a large part in Denver’s championship rotation this last season, averaging a combined 28.1 minutes per game between the regular season and playoffs. His aggressiveness, mentality, defensive intensity, and offensive skill set helped propel the Nuggets to playoff wins, including Game 4 of the NBA Finals against the Miami Heat when Brown posted 21 points and made clutch baskets down the stretch. His versatility allowed the Nuggets to ease Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back into consistent roles last year. That luxury will be gone this time around, and there are questions as to which players on Denver’s bench can replace Brown’s all-around skill set.
Forward/small ball center Jeff Green played a role in all 20 playoff games for the Nuggets this past season. Though he only averaged 17.1 minutes, 4.1 points, and 1.6 rebounds per game in the playoffs, Green was a player the Nuggets could count on doing the little things, properly spacing the floor, and executing complex defensive schemes. He scored in double figures in just one playoff game, but the Nuggets didn’t need a player in his position to score. Can the Nuggets find a forward/big man with the right connective tissue that limits mistakes? Perhaps, but such an addition is never guaranteed.
NBA PREVIEW : DALLAS MAVERICKS, A LAST CHANCE SALON WITH DONČIĆ?
WHO STEPS UP IN ODD GAMES?
The natural replacements for Brown and Green are young contributors already on the roster.
Again, the Nuggets are a little difficult to talk about here because they are such a known commodity, but we’ll take the biggest question and use it as the launching off point here. The one real question facing the Nuggets has to do with their depth, namely the way that they’re going to replace the minutes they got from Brown and Green. They have a few veterans coming off of their bench in Reggie Jackson and Justin Holiday, and while there is value in the fact that you can usually pencil in what you can expect from them on a given night, they’re probably not helping to raise the team’s ceiling.
Jackson and Holiday each signed contracts with the Nuggets in July, Jackson to return to fill a backup point guard role and Holiday to be a veteran presence behind Denver’s young wing prospects. Are those roles cut and dry though?
Jackson is expected to earn the backup point guard spot out of training camp ahead of second round rookie Jalen Pickett and two-way contract Collin Gillespie. Jackson was bought out last season and signed in Denver around the trade deadline and had no time to develop chemistry. Perhaps an offseason will help him settle into Denver and provide positive value. Perhaps the Nuggets may need to look a different direction by the start of 2024.
Holiday is a couple seasons away from being a consistent contributor, but his 3&D skill set pairs well in theory with a contending team like the Nuggets. While Braun, Watson, and even Julian Strawther and Hunter Tyson are the more intriguing young talents, the steadiness of a veteran off the bench could prove useful in a variety of situations. Holiday may not expect to play immediately, but don’t write off the possibility.
If that’s going to happen, it’ll come by way of one of their youngsters blossoming in a larger role. The obvious candidate here is Christian Braun, who funny enough tied for the second-most games played last year
and continued to earn Malone’s trust as the year went on — he played in every NBA Finals game and famously exploded for 15 points in 19 minutes during Denver’s Game 3 win.
He only averaged 15.0 minutes per game between the regular season and playoffs though, a far cry from Brown’s aforementioned 28.1 minutes per game. The Nuggets are expecting a minutes bump for Braun, but can he handle the additional responsibilities that come with that challenge? Braun will be tasked with additional ball handling, shooting, and defensive assignments, and how he handles the added pressure will determine whether the Nuggets have found their next sixth man.
Maybe Zeke Nnaji or Peyton Watson’s familiarity with the team (Nnaji is entering his fourth year, Watson is entering his second) can be parlayed into more playing time.
Peyton Watson only played 23 regular season games during his rookie season (Braun played an astounding 76 games) and the questions surrounding Watson’s game are much more open ended. The Nuggets played Watson more consistently at the end of the regular season, and he flashed the physical tools and impact that a good prospect should showcase early on. Now, the question is whether that production/impact is sustainable or if Watson was a flash in the pan in games that didn’t matter. The Nuggets will figure that out shortly, but after a good summer league showing and a summer of workouts in Denver, Watson appears ready for the challenges ahead.
Can they get literally anything out of their NBA Draft class, all of whom are old for being first-year players — Julian Strawther is 21 and turns 22 in April, Hunter Tyson just turned 23, Jalen Pickett turns 24 right before the start of the regular season.
The aforementioned rookies (Jalen Pickett, Julian Strawther, and Hunter Tyson) each bring a different skill set to the table. Pickett is a versatile point guard with a unique back-to-the-basket style, elite court vision, and solid shooting touch. Strawther is a traditional floor spacing wing with deep range and a floater to match. Tyson is a stretch forward with some off-the-dribble juice on closeouts, sweet outside shooting, and a hustle factor on rebounds and defensive plays.
All three could be helpful in different situations, but none are guaranteed playing time out of the gate. In fact, it would be surprising if any of the three played minutes on opening night. Still, the Nuggets spent significant draft capital to maneuver their way to selecting all three amidst a championship contention window. The expectation will be that one or more of Pickett, Strawther, or Tyson will become a helpful rotation player sooner rather than later.
The good news is that, barring multiple catastrophic injuries, Denver doesn’t need any of these guys to magically morph into an impact starter or anything like that. Their starting unit is so good that they have the luxury of time. But building up depth is important, and the defending champions have 82 games to do that before the playoffs roll around.
CAN JAMAL MURRAY AND MICHAEL PORTER JR EASE UP NIKOLA JOKIĆ?
After averaging 26.1 points, 7.1 assists, and 5.7 rebounds in the 2023 NBA playoffs a few months ago, this may seem like a ludicrous question to ask about Jamal Murray. He is absolutely stamped when it comes to playoff contributions and what to expect when the going gets tough. That much will never be a question.
Still, in each of Murray’s six seasons, he has averaged 9.8, 14.0, 18.0, 16.9, 18.8, and 17.5 points per game across the first 25 games. Murray’s outside shooting efficiency to begin the season is often subpar, failing to clear 35% from three-point range in those 25-game spans in all but his rookie season.
How can Murray be better? Enter this season like a freight train rather than easing in slowly. If the choice was between starting strong or finishing strong, the Nuggets and their fans would of course choose the latter; however, Murray’s too good to start another season slowly. If his goal is to become an All-Star for the first time, this is the most straightforward way to do so.
As for Michael Porter Jr., his consistency throughout the regular season and into the playoffs was marvelous. He brought energy and effort whenever he played, made the hustle plays, and filled his role perfectly. He shot the ball well in every single month of the regular season outside of five games in December.
Perhaps most notably, Porter stayed healthy throughout the year, affording the Nuggets the opportunity to trust him with more and more responsibility. If he can continue to stay healthy, the Nuggets should help him expand his skill set to creating off the dribble for himself and others more consistently. Porter is primarily a floor spacer, and at 6’10”, he’s a darn good one. He has the talent to handle more though, and if he could up his levels as a scorer off the dribble and a playmaker for others, he’d elevate from a role player to a star in a heartbeat.
About Author
