NBA PREVIEW : FATHER TIME? LAKERS CAN DEFY THE ODDS AGAIN TO GO ONE BETTER.
A quiet summer becomes rare in the Lakers after two years marked by the arrival and non-departure of Westbrook respectively. Those in gold and purple arrive at the beginning of the course without carrying a feeling of disaster from the previous year, without questionable movements in the off-season, and without the feeling that this template needs many changes to work. In short, with optimism. Which is saying something coming from where we come from.
Things feel much differently around the Los Angeles Lakers than they did a year ago.
Back then, they had a roster that appeared perhaps broken beyond repair. However, a busy NBA trade deadline helped correct a lot of those issues, and the franchise seemingly took further steps in the right direction this summer.
The Los Angeles Lakers, under the leadership of Vice President of Basketball Operations and General Manager Rob Pelinka, made a series of game-changing trades during the 2022-23 season, setting the stage for an impressive turnaround. In the aftermath of these strategic moves, the Lakers managed to secure the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference, finishing with a respectable 43-39 record.
General manager Rob Pelinka overhauled the roster once again this offseason in hopes of improving a team that made a run to the Western Conference Finals. There are few who would not deem Los Angeles an offseason winner, which means the Lakers find themselves as one of the four likeliest Western Conference champions by the betting market standards.
One glance at the moves Pelinka made this offseason, and it becomes clear that the objective for Los Angeles was to get better shooting.
The formula they found late last season feels sound and sustainable. They won 18 of their final 27 games, then turned a play-in tournament invite into consecutive playoff series victories.
The Lakers, who had a single playoff trip and no series wins to show for the two previous seasons, have forced their way into the top tier of title contenders. This could be a special season in Hollywood.
The Lakers were the second-worst shooting team in the postseason (33.5%) of the teams that played multiple series. They were also a low-frequency shooting team, taking only 30.6% of their attempts from beyond the arc. That was painfully obvious in the series loss to Denver, where Los Angeles made 21 fewer 3-pointers and took 38 less than the eventual champions.
To address those issues the front office signed Gabe Vincent, Taurean Prince and Christian Wood. Vincent was brilliant for Miami in its run to the Finals last season, shooting 37.8% on 6.1 attempts per game.
Prince is a career 37.2% shooter who shot 40.9% on catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts last season. Wood has shot 37.9% in his career, and he shot 41.8% on catch-and-shoot attempts with Dallas.
All three should fit perfectly alongside ball-dominant players like LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and they address the biggest weakness Los Angeles had heading into the offseason.
Wood is also the second addition in the frontcourt, joining Jaxson Hayes who was brought in by Pelinka as well. The Lakers had a real issue in finding minutes at center behind Davis as the season progressed. When Davis played the five, Los Angeles outscored opponents by 4.7 points per 100 possessions, but with anyone else at center, they had a -3.9 net rating. The depth there isn’t perfect, but Hayes can spell Davis while still providing a presence on the glass and Wood gives them a floor-spacing center option for more offensive-oriented lineups.
The Lakers spent their most money in-house.
Los Angeles also retained their biggest assets this offseason by re-signing both Austin Reaves, who had a solid summer for Team USA at the FIBA World Cup, and Rui Hachimura. They also reached a historic contract extension with Anthony Davis and found the funds to bring back D’Angelo Russell in free agency.
Before that, the team invested the No. 17 pick in combo guard Jalen Hood-Schifino. He faces an uphill climb to log any sort of meaningful minutes at the NBA level this season, but he has made a strong impression already at training camp.
By all accounts, it was a successful offseason, but even the most successful summers come with questions, and this team still has those as we enter the 2023-2024 season. For example, what if the shooting isn’t what we expect it to be?
Vincent is a career 33.9% shooter, and he has shot 33.4% or worse in three of his four seasons in the NBA. Hachimura hit an incredible 48.7% of his 3-point attempts in the postseason, but he shot just 29.6% in the regular season for Los Angeles and is a career 34.7% shooter. D’Angelo Russell shot 41.4% in a Laker uniform, but he is only a 36.2% shooter for his career.
Prince and Reaves should be reliable shooting options, although Reaves dramatically improved his shooting last season as well and could regress, but there is a reality in which each of these questionable shooters become what we’ve seen throughout their careers, and the Lakers are stuck with the same problem as last season.
We can also question whether or not this depth at center will really work for Los Angeles enough to give Davis more rest and allow the Lakers to play dual bigs like they did in their run to a title in the bubble.
New Orleans was absolutely demolished when Hayes played center for them in his time there. The best season Hayes had in his minutes at center was his rookie year in which the Pelicans had a -1.3 net rating with him at the five. In the last two seasons, New Orleans posted -8.1 and -9.0 net ratings when he played center. Wood is a great offensive player, but the Lakers won’t be able to play long stretches of minutes with him at the five without being exploited on defense.
The presence of James and Davis will always make Los Angeles one of the better teams in the NBA, but so much of the positivity around this version of the Lakers hinges on certain players being versions of themselves which larger sample sizes of data tell us they are not. It could lead to the Lakers being a good team but somewhat overvalued in the betting markets.
Los Angeles has the fourth-highest strength of schedule, according to Positive Residual. The Lakers have a negative net rest advantage (-5) and are among the nine teams with the most back-to-backs on their schedule (15). They too have questions about the availability of their stars in the regular season.
James has missed 51 games combined in the last two seasons, and Davis has missed 68 games over that same span. Given Davis’ injury history and James’ increasing age, it is almost certain that this duo will miss some time in the regular season. Without those two on the floor, this is a team that could struggle to defend at a high level, especially inside.
Los Angeles should be clear of the play-in tournament this season, and if healthy they will be a contender in the Western Conference, but given the construction of this team it’s not one that projects to have enough regular season success to push for 50 wins. Especially if some of the new faces revert to form.
BIGGEST DOUBTS
A 38-year-old LeBron James or Anthony Davis’ struggles to stay healthy. But every team would be torpedoed if its star went down, so that feels like a cop-out choice.
Assuming good health for the Lakers, what could really decide this season’s fate is the level of improvements that Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura can make.
L.A. sees stardom in Reaves, but can he hit an even higher level than the one he reached late last season? If he’s better than he was down the stretch (18 points per game on 56.8/44/85.6 shooting, 5.7 assists against 2.0 turnovers), this club could be unstoppable.
Aspirants or not, that is the question
This is already a more delicate matter. A priori, if what was seen during the second half of last year is confirmed and there are no serious physical problems, debacles such as falling out of the postseason again should not be repeated. But are these Lakers contenders?
To some extent, there are reasons to argue yes and no. The Angelenos beat some young and voracious Grizzlies in the first round, became the first team in the West to knock down the Warriors in the Kerr era in the second, and, despite being 4-0, they took the Nuggets to the limit in each game of the Conference Finals and offered a much closer series than the sweep might suggest. And since the core remains, there are reasons to think that they will continue at that level.
But, at the same time, that 4-0 is there, and it is difficult to pretend that it does not exist. Even if all the matches were decided on the wire, the Lakers They were unable to win a single game against the NBA champion, which makes it difficult to place them on the same level. And since the core remains, there is reason to think that the leap they can make is limited.
The squad seems a little deeper than the one from a few months ago, but everything indicates that the quintet will be the same that was usual in the past qualifying rounds (Russell, Reaves, LeBron, Vanderbilt, Davis) and they are rarely the sixth and seventh men who make the difference. Can Gabe Vincent be the one of the last playoffs? Can Christian Wood give quality breaks to Davis in a role where, let’s not forget, Ham had to slot in Hachimura and Tristan Thompson during the Conference Finals?
Sounds plausible. And if we take into account that the leap they need to make is not as big as the one a year ago, it may be necessary to count on these Lakers. But for now, they don’t seem to start the course in the same tier than the Nuggets. If they want to be considered as such, they will have to earn it on the court.
STAR WATCH
AUSTIN REAVES
Austin Reaves enters his third NBA season as somewhat of a made-man among Lakers faithful. Players who follow his path and play his style often become instant favorites within any fanbase, but Lakers fans are prone to fall especially hard for the players like him; players who come from humble beginnings only to outplay those who have more name recognition and pedigree.
Reaves truly is somewhat of a Cinderella story. One of the lone bright spots in his rookie season, Reaves clawed his way into the rotation as an undrafted player whose combination of skill, grit, and general passion for the game stood out in contrast to a veteran group who, ravaged by injury and the general decline that comes from aging out of the league, seemed to understand fairly early in the season that their lofty expectations would not be met. Then, last season, Reaves steadily worked his way into a steadier and more consistent rotation spot, before fully cementing himself as a starter and key closer heading into the postseason.
Then, once the playoffs began, Reaves proved worthy of the upped stakes and intensity of the postseason, announcing his arrival in the loudest way possible — taking over down the stretch of Game 1 of the Lakers first round series against the Grizzlies, announcing to the world that he was him and doing it all while silencing the road crowd. Over the course of the rest of the team’s postseason run, Reaves had a few down moments, but mostly continued his upward trajectory and showed that he was ready to compete at whatever level was needed for a team with title aspirations.
Austin Reaves is arguably the third-best player on the Los Angeles Lakers behind LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Over the last two NBA seasons, the Lakers are 13-26 without Reaves in the lineup and 63-62 when the guard plays.
In addition, the Lakers are three points better defensively with Reaves on the court. The Arkansas product, who is an undrafted player, averaged 13.0 points, 3.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists last season for the Lakers while shooting 52.9% from the field, 39.8% from beyond the arc and 86.4% from the free-throw line.
The 25-year-old Reaves took his game to another level in the 2023 postseason, averaging 16.9 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.6 assists in 16 games versus the Memphis Grizzlies, Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets.
He has career averages of 10.2 points and 2.6 assists with the Lakers. Reaves developed a good rapport with LeBron and Davis last season and it sounds like the Lakers are going to put the ball in his hands more often next season, as according to Jovan Buha of The Athletic, Los Angeles plans on running more of its offense through Reaves moving forward.
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