NBA PREVIEW : GRIZZLIES MUST LEARN THERE’S A FINE LINE BETWEEN SWAGGER AND ARROGANCE.

What a difference a year makes for the Memphis Grizzlies.Memphis fell back to earth in 2022-23, and a first-round playoff exit led many to believe the squad wasn’t ready for prime time.

Coming off the 2021-22 season, the Grizzlies were a confident, young team on the rise. They had a refreshing star in Ja Morant whose confidence spread to his teammates.

The dichotomy displayed how there’s a fine line between swagger and arrogance. The Grizzlies began leaning a little too much toward the latter.

A first-round loss to Los Angeles seemingly motivated Memphis’ front office to shake up certain parts of its roster in the offseason. Dillon Brooks was allowed to walk, and the team flipped two first-round picks and Tyus Jones for Marcus Smart. It’s an intriguing piece to put next to Ja Morant and Desmond Bane in the backcourt, but the first priority for this team is not basketball-related.

Morant will miss the first 25 games of the season due to a suspension

handed down over the summer by the NBA. Morant has consistently stepped into trouble off the court, and those issues weighed down the team last season and will affect the team this season.

Memphis was 16-28 SU/14-28-2 ATS on the road overall and an astonishing 0-19 SU/2-17 ATS as a road underdog. The struggles away from home seemingly tied into Morant and the young Grizzlies putting fun over basketball, as evidenced by a team meeting in which Steven Adams had to address the team’s focus on road trips. One would assume that Morant’s suspension would get this team to focus on the right things, but bettors will need evidence of that first.

Now we must evaluate this team with Morant’s absence in mind. The first thought for some might be that the Grizzlies do well without their star guard, but this team is much different than the one that went 20-5 SU without Morant two seasons ago.

NBA PREVIEW : FATHER TIME? LAKERS CAN DEFY THE ODDS AGAIN TO GO ONE BETTER.

Last season Memphis went just 11-10 SU without Morant. In the minutes without him on the floor, the Grizzlies posted a +2.3 net rating, but compared to the 7.3 points per 100 possessions by which they outscored opponents without Morant, that net rating is average. This team is also much different in terms of depth. Not only is Brooks on another team, but it is unlikely Brandon Clarke, who suffered a torn Achilles in March, plays this season. Jones is now in Washington and in his place is an aging Derrick Rose off the bench. The depth of this team is nowhere near the same as the last two seasons.

That is not to say there is nothing to like about the Grizzlies. Once Morant’s suspension has been served and he returns, there are still plenty of positives for this team.

One of Memphis’ biggest weaknesses last season was its inconsistent shooting. It took 34% of its attempts from deep, but they only shot 35.7% overall and 35.0% on non-corner attempts. This version of the Grizzlies should be better in that category.

Smart is only a career 32.3% shooter, but he has improved as his career has gone along. He was a high-volume shooter his last four seasons in Boston, averaging 5.7 attempts per game. At the very least, he is good enough that teams must respect his presence along the perimeter and is capable of shooting about 37% from the corners.

Bane is an established, elite shooter in the NBA who has shot 42.5% for his career overall. Luke Kennard shot 51.6% from deep in his time with Memphis last season, and a full season with him on the roster gives them another elite shot-maker from deep. John Konchar had a down shooting season by his standards last year (33.9% on 2.5 attempts per game), but he is a career 37.4% shooter who hit 42.1% of catch-and-shoot attempts the season prior.

Memphis also still has an elite frontcourt pairing in Jaren Jackson Jr., the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, and Steven Adams. When those two were on the floor last season, Memphis outscored opponents by 15.9 points per 100 possessions, and it had a 104.1 defensive rating. Those lineups also ranked in the 100th percentile in offensive rebounding rate and the 92nd percentile in defensive rebounding rate. That should remain a strength once again.

All of this fits wonderfully around Morant when he is on the floor. Morant is an incredible scorer off the bounce who can put pressure on the rim unlike any guard in the league. Last season, he ranked in the 96th percentile in assist rate by dishing dimes on 41.2% of his teammates’ made shot attempts. How he fits off the ball with a player like Smart will be fascinating to watch, but there is no question that the Grizzlies will be among the highest power-rated teams when Morant returns from his absence.

The Grizzlies should have a pretty high floor as long as their best players are healthy for the most part. They had 50-plus wins in back-to-back seasons, and they managed to keep their heads above water when Morant was out of action for stretches in 2022-23.

His suspension might lead more fans to appreciate Desmond Bane, who averaged 21.5 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.4 assists while shooting 40.8 percent from beyond the arc. The 6’5″ guard earned every penny of his five-year, $197.2 million extension.

Letting Brooks walk as a free agent was an understandable decision for Memphis because his presence was a net-negative in the postseason. And while Tyus Jones’ value shouldn’t be overlooked, the backcourt as a whole might be stronger with Marcus Smart. Smart is an elite perimeter defender whose leadership on and off the court provides an ingredient that was missing on the roster.

When it comes to predicting the Grizzlies’ record, one thing to consider is whether they start keeping one eye on the playoffs.

Especially in the wake of such an unpredictable postseason, head coach Taylor Jenkins and his players might be willing to sacrifice a few wins in an effort to be in a stronger place at the business end of the campaign.

 

BIGGEST QUESTION

How Well Can They Manage Ja Morant’s 25-Game Suspension?

There aren’t a lot of questions left for this Grizzlies team in the regular season after back-to-back campaigns, and much of what people want to see is whether they can become a more real threat to top West contenders come playoff time. However, they can only answer those questions if they’re a playoff team, and this year they will face a real challenge in securing a guaranteed playoff spot in a crowded West with the 25-game suspension for All-Star guard Ja Morant. Memphis has been very good in Morant’s absence in the past, navigating stretches without him due to various injuries, but going 25 straight games without Morant will put them to the test.

With Tyus Jones now in Washington, they no longer have their steady-handed backup able to run the show, and that means a lot is going to fall on the shoulders of Marcus Smart to pick things up quickly and establish early chemistry with his teammates. Smart is certainly capable of running the show for a playoff contender, but he’s coming from a place where he had a ton of reps and an unspoken bond with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Now he’ll have to quickly create that understanding with Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr., and there could be some hiccups along the way. In the long-run, I think the Smart trade was worthwhile for Memphis as he is an upgrade over Brooks and brings some real playoff experience and savvy to a roster that needs it. However, it’s not a guarantee that in the immediate absence of Morant things go as smoothly as they have in the past when the star guard has been out, and in what figures to be a very crowded race for the top-6 in the West, the Grizzlies will need to be able to tread water until he’s back.

 

STAR WATCH 

DESMOND BANE 

Desmond Bane played through a toe injury throughout last season that he had surgery for after the Grizzlies season came to an end. Still, he took another step forward as an all-around offensive talent for the Grizzlies, significantly increasing his assist rate, his self-created shots made rate, and getting to the line 40% more than he had the season prior. He continued to light it up as a shooter, and has shot over 40% from 3 all three seasons in his career so far.

This season, Ja Morant will be missing the first 25 games with his suspension. Bane averaged 22/5/4 without Ja last year. Marcus Smart has arrived and will be his backcourt mate in the meantime with Luke Kennard at the SF spot, the best shooter in the NBA last season.

I personally believe Bane is due to average at least 24 a game without Morant and with this kind of talent surrounding him this season compared to last in the games without Ja, with he himself being healthy and another year better, with JJJ also being healthy to start the season, as he didn’t make his season debut last year until mid-November, and Adams being healthy after he missed the second half of the year. Smart is an underrated playmaker and a more respected perimeter shooter than Morant…Adams’ impact with his screening, offensive rebounding and finishing abilities is integral…replacing Brooks with Kennard, who is also a decent passer, should elevate the Grizzlies half court offense significantly.

I think Bane has a real chance at being an All-Star this year. What are your expectations for Desmond Bane this season?

 

 

 

 

 

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