NBA PREVIEW : HEALTH IS KEY FOR NOLA THIS SEASON
If New Orleans is going to reach its true potential this season, then the team needs much better injury luck than it has had the last season-and-a-half. Unfortunately, the Pelicans’ bad luck with health has already started to rear its ugly head, and training camp has yet to begin.
Third-year guard Trey Murphy III was lost for 10-12 weeks after suffering a meniscus tear during a workout in September. Murphy played in 79 games and had career-highs in points (14.6), rebounds (3.6) and assists per game (1.4). He also shot 40.6% from deep overall, most of which came in the form of catch-and-shoot attempts on which he shot 40.7%. Murphy was a candidate to start this season, so his absence is huge.
suffered a meniscus tear during a workout in September
Jose Alvarado was also lost to an injury in the offseason, although his ankle sprain is not expected to keep him from regular-season action. Alvarado has posted a positive efficiency differential in each of his first two seasons and has proven to be a plus-defender along the perimeter.
The status of both Murphy and Alvarado might not move the needle for bettors reading this guide, but their health is paramount for New Orleans to have success this season. Their injuries also represent an issue that has haunted this team for quite some time.
The New Orleans Pelicans got off to a tremendous start last season and looked like a team ready to take the leap into being a top 4 contender in the West. However, injuries derailed that promising start, as Zion Williamson injured his hamstring after 29 games and never returned, and Brandon Ingram was in and out of the lineup with ankle issues that limited him to just 45 appearances.
Without their top two stars playing consistently, the Pelicans limped home to a 42-40 record before being bounced in the first Play-In game.
Last season when CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson were on the floor, the Pelicans outscored their opponents by 19.5 points per 100 possessions. Much of that success was driven by an elite offense that ranked in the 97th percentile in efficiency (123.7). However, those three played only 10 games together last season and 172 total minutes. Ingram played in only 45 games, and Williamson played in only 29 games before missing the rest of the season.
At one point, New Orleans was 18-8 and in control of the top seed in the Western Conference last season. When the team is healthy, they can be one of the best in their conference, but up to this point, there is no reason to believe the availability will be there.
Williamson has been the poster child for this team’s health issues. The former first-overall pick has played more than 29 games just once since getting drafted in 2019, but the talent is obvious when he is on the floor. In the three seasons in which he has played, he’s posted an efficiency differential no worse than +7.0 according to Cleaning The Glass. He’s ranked no lower than the 71st percentile at his position in points per shot attempt.
While this off-season saw them mostly stay the course in terms of roster moves, it wasn’t without noise, as rumors swirled about Williamson’s future with the organization. Entering this season, there isn’t the same level of excitement and optimism around what this team can be, as there is instead this lingering feeling that we may never see this talented roster reach its full potential. Hopefully that is a misguided feeling, but the NBA world will want to see it for a full season before they believe it with this Pelicans squad.
It’s not breaking news that Williamson is good at basketball, but it would be breaking news if he played a majority of contests in the regular season. Therein lies the issues with the Pelicans this season. A wager on this team to succeed is a wager that Williamson and Ingram will be available.
Should those two actually play a majority of games, this team will be on par with many in the NBA. They will still have their flaws though, specifically on defense.
The Pelicans finished sixth in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (113.1), but they were insanely lucky throughout the season.
New Orleans allowed the sixth-highest frequency of 3-point attempts last season (37.8%), but opponents shot just 34.3% on those shots, the best rate in the league. One could argue that the Pelicans purposely allowed the lesser shooters to fire away, but a deeper look at the metrics paints a different picture. New Orleans allowed the third-highest frequency of wide-open 3-point attempts, but opponents shot just 36.1% on those looks, the second-lowest rate on uncontested looks by opponents. Should the Pelicans allow the same rate of wide-open looks their defense will surely regress to an average unit at best.
The Pelicans ranked last in the league in opponent field goal percentage within five feet (68.5%) last season, 14th in opponents’ points in the paint (49.6) and 23rd in blocks per game (4.1). In the past, New Orleans has tried a defensive-minded approach at the center position.
Should the defense regress but the availability improve New Orleans will be a candidate to be a team that plays to the over. Their defense should regress to league average, and the trio of Williamson, Ingram and McCollum tend to play fast. When that trio was on the floor their pace (101.70) would have been the fourth highest in the league, and they ranked in the 72nd percentile in offensive efficiency in transition (130.6).
New Orleans does not have a particularly daunting schedule this season. Positive Residual has the Pelicans with the 14th hardest schedule in the NBA. They have a +2 net rest advantage, and they are among the 10 teams with only 13 back-to-backs. Nine of the games in which they have a rest advantage come at home as well, meaning they should be able to maximize those winnable opportunities.
The journey of the New Orleans Pelicans in the upcoming NBA season is laden with anticipation and intrigue. This young team, laden with potential, is on the brink of what could be a transformative season. As every game unfolds, every strategy is deployed, and every player gives their best, the larger picture will start to emerge.
The upcoming season will be pivotal for the Pelicans. The decisions they make off the court and the plays they run on it will determine their place in NBA history. While Zion Williamson remains their cornerstone, it’s the collective spirit, the amalgamation of offense and defense, and the sheer will to triumph that will make all the difference.
Biggest Question: How Much Will Their Starting Unit Play Together?
With most teams I have tried avoiding going with health-related questions, but it’s impossible to talk about this Pelicans team without addressing the elephant in the room. We saw last year that when they’re all on the floor they can be an absolute buzzsaw, as they have terrific balance when at full strength. Their top-6 is genuinely among the best in the league, as Williamson is an unstoppable freight train getting to the rim, Ingram has become an elite midrange scorer, and McCollum is a steady hand in the backcourt and knockdown shooter. Around those three they can go big or small, with Jonas Valanciunas, Herbert Jones, and Trey Murphy III all providing a different complementary skillset to their trio of stars.
The Pelicans even have solid depth beyond that six, but there is a ceiling on how far that can take a team if their top stars aren’t on the floor. There are already some injury concerns in New Orleans before the season even begins, but if they can get 60+ games out of Zion and Ingram each, they absolutely have a shot at being in the West playoff chase. That’s how good they are, it’s just a matter of whether they can finally sustain it for a full season or if we’re doomed to dream of what could’ve been in New Orleans once again.
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