NBA PREVIEW : IT’S DAME TIME IN MILWAUKEE
Back in 2021, the Milwaukee Bucks finally ascended to the NBA’s mountaintop. It came on the heels of a Giannis Antetokounmpo openly floating his desire to look around due to his desire to win a championship and a major swing by the front office to bring a big-time guard — in this case, Jrue Holiday — to Milwaukee.
After being heralded as a favorite to return to the NBA Finals, and possibly claim the franchise’s second title in three years, Milwaukee coasted to a 9-0 start to the regular season, and amassed a 16-game win streak later in the year. That was all for naught, though, as a wild card Miami Heat team bounced the Bucks from the first round of the NBA playoffs in five games. While it likely hasn’t left the players minds, Milwaukee finds itself in a similar position for the 2023-24 slate of games, which tips off on October 26.
In an offseason filled with massive trades that shifted the landscape of the league, the Milwaukee Bucks might have pulled off the biggest one. A week before the start of training camp Milwaukee shipped off Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen and draft compensation to land Damian Lillard. In the following days, Holiday was picked up by Boston.
The last time Milwaukee’s front office traded assets for a coveted guard they acquired Holiday and eventually won a championship. That is obviously the goal once more for the Bucks, and in pulling this off, they could have one of the best duos in the NBA.
Lillard is the perfect guard to put on the floor with Giannis Antetokounmpo. Last season in Portland the Trail Blazers averaged 1.13 points per possession when Lillard was the ball-handler in a pick-and-roll. That was without Antetokounmpo on the floor. Now Lillard has a complimentary piece to run those pick-and-rolls with him in the Greek Freak. Milwaukee averaged 1.08 points per possession when Antetokounmpo was the roll-man in a pick-and-roll last season. That efficiency should improve dramatically with Lillard running the show.
This addition also helps out the likes of Khris Middleton, who was often called upon to bail the offense out when it was sputtering in halfcourt situations. Middleton shot 38.8% on catch-and-shoot attempts in the 2021-2022 season – the last season in which he played more than 33 games – and will now find himself with much better looks as a result of sharing the floor with Lillard and Antetokounmpo.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, the two-time NBA MVP, had another stellar season, averaging a career-high 31.1 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 5.7 assists. His dominance on both ends of the court earned him a third-place finish in the MVP voting. However, his efforts were not enough to carry the Bucks deep into the playoffs.
There are plenty of storylines to watch this season, but none bigger than the play of Giannis Antetokounmpo. After missing a total of 19 games last year due to injury, Antetokounmpo underwent a routine surgery in the offseason, according to the team. The injury stems back to the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals, when Giannis collided with Atlanta Hawks guard Clint Capela and hyperextended his left leg. In 2022, he revealed in an interview with The Athletic that he was one more extension away from total disaster, but played in the Finals without a knee brace. After the surgery, Giannis missed the 2023 FIBA World Cup with the Greece national team, but appears to be on a timetable that will have him back in action for the regular season. As a perennial MVP candidate, Bucks fans will need the Greek Freak in top form by opening night.
Khris Middleton, a three-time All-Star, had a challenging season. He battled a series of nagging injuries that limited him to just 33 games. When healthy, Middleton is a crucial piece of the Bucks’ core, providing valuable scoring and playmaking alongside Antetokounmpo. His health will be a key factor in the Bucks’ success in the upcoming season.
Having Middleton as the third option as an offensive creator instead of the second will do wonders for this offense. Milwaukee’s greatest weakness last season was its halfcourt offense, as it averaged only 99.6 points per 100 halfcourt plays. Lillard alleviates the pain for the Bucks when the game slows down in those situations, and his presence spaces the floor, allowing Antetokounmpo more room to work in.
Middleton also underwent surgery this offseason, but should be good to go by opening night as well. Another key re-signing was center Brook Lopez, who will be joined by his brother, Robin, after being acquired from the Cleveland Cavaliers. Robin last played for the Bucks in 2019-20, and adds another big presence in the paint for Milwaukee. Veteran guard Malik Beasley is also a new addition, along with young guards Andre Jackson Jr. from UConn and a re-signed A.J. Green, who added shooting depth late in the 2022-23 regular season. The core of the Bucks’ roster is certainly bolstered by Lillard, but production from the bench will be crucial in the long haul that is the 82-game slate.
Lillard is also comfortable running in transition, something the Bucks love to do with Antetokounmpo on the floor. In those possessions last season Milwaukee ranked in the 92nd percentile in transition frequency off live rebounds, but they averaged only 116.7 points per 100 plays. Lillard was brilliant in transition for Portland last season, improving their transition offensive rating by 10.4 points per 100 plays.
On almost every level offensively, this pairing should work for Milwaukee. However, questions do remain on defense.
Without Holiday the Bucks now have to find an option for opponents’ primary backcourt scorer. Holiday is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA, and even shut down Lillard years earlier in a first-round series as a member of the Pelicans. Who on this team takes on the best perimeter scorer on defense now? Under Mike Budenholzer Antetokounmpo would usually play the role of help defender, but he might be called on more frequently to defend the opposition’s best player in the regular season.
Their interior defense should be just fine though. Brook Lopez returned after flirting with Houston in free agency, and he will allow Milwaukee to roll out its patented drop coverage defense if needed. When he and Antentokounmpo shared the floor last season the Bucks ranked in the 97th percentile of defensive efficiency. With Lillard at the point of attack now those numbers could dip, but with two All-Defense players up front, this will continue to be an above-average unit.
The other issue for Milwaukee, as it usually is when a team sacrifices assets to land a star player, is the team’s depth is a real question. The front office did well in signing Cam Payne to shore up the backup point guard spot, but the concerns remain. Malik Beasley, Pat Connaughton and Jae Crowder make up the depth along the wing, but none of them are elite options at the position.
Regardless, this team will compete for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. The stars they are built on also have relatively steady injury histories, meaning that lack of depth could rarely rear its ugly head. Stars drive success in the NBA, and the Bucks now have two of them. They are the rightful favorites to win the NBA Finals.
Is Upgrading Their Offense With Damian Lillard Worth Downgrading Their Defense?
Milwaukee having to part ways with Holiday was not easy. As a player and as a person, Holiday was a beloved member of the organization, the sort of guy that you root for even if you have no stake in the Bucks. Watching him go to the team’s biggest rival in the Eastern Conference following a pit stop in Portland had to have been a gut punch.
And yet, it’s not hard to see why Milwaukee’s front office made the decision to turn Holiday (along with Grayson Allen and Draft capital) into Lillard. An issue for the Bucks is that their offense is prone to getting stuck in the mud, particularly when the game slows down and they have to play in the halfcourt. This comes with the caveat that Antetokounmpo was clearly not right as he played through injuries and essentially missed the first three games, but the Bucks’ offense in their first-round loss to the Miami Heat in the playoffs was brutal. Small sample sizes and what not, but in four losses, Milwaukee had an offensive rating of 109.4 with an effective field goal percentage of 53.2 percent. Their true shooting percentage came in at 55.9 percent. While a wonderful player, Holiday’s had some postseason warts over the last few years, namely when it comes to efficiency from the field (38.4 percent on field goals, 30.6 percent from three over 17 playoff games in the last two years).
Offenses do not stall out when Lillard is running the show, and the thought of a two-man game with himself and Antetokounmpo is legitimately one of the most exciting things in the league. The bet that the Bucks made was that all of this is that the gains they’ll make on that end of the floor will offset what losing Holiday — perhaps the most versatile defensive guard in the league — means on the other. While we don’t know what new head coach Adrian Griffin will want his defense to look like, it’s worth mentioning that Milwaukee’s defense in recent years has featured elite rim protection, and with Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez returning, that should remain.
Can Antetokounmpo and Lillard Mesh Together?
As the Bucks gear up for the 2023-24 season, all eyes will be on Antetokounmpo and Lillard, as they look to lead the team to another NBA championship.
The Milwaukee Bucks’ championship aspirations for the 2023-24 season will largely hinge on the performances of their two superstars, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. Both players are among the elite in the NBA, and their partnership could potentially form one of the most formidable duos in the league.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, a two-time NBA MVP, has been the cornerstone of the Bucks’ success in recent years. His dominance on both ends of the court has earned him a reputation as one of the best players in the world. Last season, he averaged a career-high 31.1 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 5.7 assists, finishing third in MVP voting. Despite the Bucks’ early playoff exit, Antetokounmpo’s performance remained stellar, showcasing his ability to perform at the highest level under pressure.
The addition of Damian Lillard to the Bucks’ roster adds another dimension to their offense. Lillard, a seven-time All-Star, is known for his scoring prowess and clutch performances. Last season, he averaged a career-high 32.2 points per game, making him one of the league’s top scorers. His ability to create his own shot and stretch the floor with his three-point shooting will provide Antetokounmpo with more space to operate, potentially making the Bucks’ offense even more potent.
However, the success of this superstar duo will not only depend on their individual performances but also on their ability to gel as a team. Both players are used to being the primary offensive options for their respective teams, and it will be interesting to see how they adjust to sharing the spotlight. Their chemistry on and off the court will be crucial in determining the Bucks’ success in the upcoming season.
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