NBA PREVIEW : LIFE AFTER LILLARD REMAINS UNCLEAR IN PORTLAND
For the first time since the 2011-12 NBA season, the Portland Trail Blazers are going into the year without the services of Damian Lillard. We’ll make this quick as you know the story here, but Lillard is now a member of the Milwaukee Bucks on the heels of a tense offseason where he requested a trade to the Miami Heat.
The Portland Trail Blazers enter the 2023-24 regular season with a new roster, a new game plan, and absolutely no track record with either to their name. It’s an exciting time for the franchise, but also one wracked with variables and uncertainty. We’ll see how their plans pan out over the course of 82 games. Chances are, it’ll be a work in progress.
Now that Damian Lillard has been dealt to Milwaukee the youth movement can officially begin in Portland. The Trail Blazers have a good stable of young guards, led by rookie Scoot Henderson who will take over for Lillard at point guard. Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe will round out the backcourt for Portland, which could surprise quite a few teams with the explosive guard play they will be able to provide on a nightly basis.
One would assume that offense would be a strength for the Trail Blazers this season, but the few statistics we have to build on do not paint a great picture.
When Sharpe and Simons were on the floor together without Lillard last season, Portland averaged just 110.6 points per 100 possessions, and they had a -7.5 net rating. According to Cleaning the Glass, those lineups ranked in the second percentile of percentage of halfcourt plays (84.6%). In other words, they barely ran. When they did run, they averaged a measly 107.9 points per 100 plays, and they ranked in the fourth percentile in offensive efficiency off live rebounds (91.4). One would assume with the athleticism of Sharpe and Simons on the floor this young duo would push the pace frequently. That should change with Henderson in the mix.
Henderson was a lethal transition scorer in his time with the G-League Ignite. His game is reminiscent of Russell Westbrook in his prime, and Henderson should push this Trail Blazers team to take advantage of its skills in transition this season. His presence means Simons is pushed over to his more natural position of shooting guard. Simons always ran the point when on the floor with Sharpe, and the result was a somewhat clunky offense. When Simons was at the two-guard the Trail Blazers were only outscored by 0.5 points per 100 possessions and they ranked in the 70th percentile in offensive efficiency (117.2).
If this team can run with more frequency, it should be able to mask some of the halfcourt issues that are sure to come with a rookie point guard. Even then, this halfcourt offense should be much better with a guard like Henderson who can drive and dish to shooters.
Simons is a career 38.7% shooter who hit 39.2% of his catch-and-shoot attempts last season. Jerami Grant hit 40.1% of his attempts from deep last season and has improved as a catch-and-shoot threat throughout his career. Sharpe shot 36.0% on 3.5 attempts per game in his rookie season. There is enough on the floor to allow Henderson to work out his own shooting issues, although questions remain about where the shooting is going to come from on this bench.
Should the front office decide to keep their rotation of bigs intact – Ayton and Williams – this could be a much better defensive team as well. Ayton had his worst season as a professional last year in Phoenix, but he has never been a poor rim protector. Williams was in contention for Defensive Player of the Year two seasons ago, and when healthy, he can raise the floor of this defense exponentially. He is also a great lob threat to pair with Henderson on pick-and-rolls.
As of October 2, Malcolm Brogdon is still a member of this team, but it is likely that he is flipped for more assets by this front office. There is a case to be made to keep him around though. The bench depth is extremely questionable for Portland as it stands with Brogdon on the roster. There is also a chance Williams is dealt as well, but he is only 25 years old and fits with the timeline of this roster for now.
Rookies like Kris Murray and Rayan Rupert will play roles for this team as it shifts into a full rebuild, and the presence of so many young players will culminate in volatile results. It won’t be surprising to see Portland pull some big upsets at home when it catches teams on a West Coast road trip this season. It will also make sense when the young Trail Blazers are run out of certain arenas when they hit the road.
Last season Portland was just 39-41-2 ATS and one of the worst teams in the league after it shut down Lillard. They will likely be one of the worst cover teams this season, with some intrigue in certain spots at home throughout the season.
The last two seasons Portland was focused on taking as many losses as possible in order to maximize its draft position. This season the NBA has established rules about resting healthy players. The team has its future star in Scoot Henderson and a haul of assets after trading Damian Lillard. It is safe to say that bettors should not see the same chicanery from the Trail Blazers’ front office this season, but that does not mean this team will be any good.
Aside from being built on a core of players under the age of 25 years old, this team could also ship off any of the veteran pieces it has. Malcolm Brogdon is expected to be flipped for assets at some point, and both Ayton and Williams could be assets too, although the reporting around those two has not been as clear. If one or both of those centers is traded, this will leave the Trail Blazers with an extremely thin frontcourt, and an even worse defense.
Biggest Question: How Does Scoot Henderson’s Rookie Year Go?
We’ll never know everything that went on this offseason, but one thing we do know is that Lillard wanted Portland to turn the No. 3 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft into immediate help. The team decided to not do that, and instead used the pick on Scoot Henderson, the dynamic guard from the G League Ignite who has been pegged as a potential All-Star for years.
Putting major expectations on Henderson right away is not fair. He is, at the end of the day, a teenager who is about to make the jump to the most difficult professional basketball league in the world. But for everything that Portland got (and will continue to get) in the Lillard trade — whether that be the one that sent Lillard our or the subsequent ones involving players they acquired for him — the most important piece of the puzzle is his successor, who will now get the opportunity to spread his wings and fly from the jump.
There’s a solid core around Henderson, and those players should help take some of the pressure off of him as he finds his way in the league. That might take a while, because being a rookie point guard is just not easy. But between his natural ability and the way he’s wired, it makes sense to want to bet on Henderson in the long-term — remember, while the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft was never in doubt, there was a school of thought that Henderson would have gone first overall in plenty of prior Drafts, as he’s the sort of guard prospect worth building your team around. This year is a chance for him to lay down a floor, and even though there are going to be obvious growing pains, the flashes he’ll probably show are what the Blazers are banking on.
Can Chauncey Billups Coach?
It feels like we’ve been asking the same question since Trail Blazers Head Coach Chauncey Billups was hired back in 2021: Can he really coach? Billups came into the league with zero head coaching experience. He was tasked with growing a playoffs contender around the now-departed Lillard. The Blazers got two trips to the lottery instead.
The vast majority of Portland’s roster is age 25 or under this season. Billups’ mission now switches to player development. Progress will replace the postseason on the list of achievable goals.
Will the coach prove more apt in this area than he did in coaxing victories out of his former rosters? He has plenty to balance. He can’t abandon winning altogether without losing integrity and denting the team’s culture. How many big-losing years can the Blazers endure before it becomes habit? But milking every possible win out of the season won’t matter as much as the status of Portland’s players in March. Portland winning 33 instead of 29 isn’t discernable. Deandre Ayton, Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons, and Shaedon Sharpe performing well is.
I’m not sure we know what the Blazers are asking out of their head coach this year. He’s going to have to beat a new path with his team. That’s hard during the crucible of an 82-game season.
Chances are we’re going to be asking this question next year as well. I’m not sure we can hope for perfection. Maybe emphasizing the right priorities will be enough…whatever those are.
STAR WATCH
ANFERNEE SIMON
Anfernee Simons is seeking his first All-Star selection of his NBA career. Simons was selected 24th overall by the team in the 2018 NBA Draft.
In his rookie 2018-19 season, while shooting 44.4% from the field and 34.5% from beyond the arc, the Florida native averaged 3.8 points per game in 20 appearances.
Then, in 70 games played during the 2019-20 season, Simons averaged 8.3 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per contest. His minutes also increased from 7.1 MPG to 20.7 MPG.
As for the 2020-21 season, in 64 games off the bench, the guard averaged 7.8 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game. He shot a career-high 42.6% from 3-point range.
Not to mention, in a 3-2 decision, Simons won the 2021 NBA Slam Dunk Contest. The guard attempted to kiss the rim as he dunked the ball, but he was unable to kiss it. Regardless, the dunk by itself was enough to win.
Last season, in 57 appearances and a career-high 30 starts, Simons had the best season of his professional playing career. He averaged 17.3 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per contest.
Head coach Chauncey Billups gave the guard increased minutes as well. Perhaps it was a step in the right direction. He averaged a career-high 29.5 minutes played per game.
On January 3, 2022, in the Trail Blazers’ 136-131 win over the Atlanta Hawks, Simons scored a career-high 43 points in 40 minutes of action. He finished 13-of-21 (61.9%) shooting from the floor and 9-of-16 (56.3%) from downtown.
About Author
