NBA PREVIEW : THE FEEL GOOD IS BACK AT ORLANDO.
After an extended period in the wilderness, there are strongly positive signs around the Orlando Magic. The Magic won 21 and 22 games in back-to-back seasons but, with the addition of No. 1 overall pick Paolo Banchero, the development of Franz Wagner, and relative stability with the roster, Orlando took a step forward with a 34-48 mark a year ago. Now comes the difficult part for the Magic, as the rebuild starts to turn the corner toward competitiveness, even in an Eastern Conference full of intriguing, talented, and experienced teams.
After beginning last season with a 5-20 record through 25 games, the Magic ended up finishing the year at 34-48. That means that Orlando went 29-28 after that lousy early-season stretch, and this team feels like it’s very close to playing winning basketball over the course of a full season. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising if it happens this year.
Orlando was just 18th in the NBA in defensive rating in 2022-23. But after those first 25 games, the Magic were sixth in the league in that category. Third-year head coach Jamal Mosley has seamlessly gotten his young team to compete at a high level on that end of the floor, which is never an easy task. And it was only amplified after the slow start.
The Magic now enter the new season hoping to be in the top 10 in defensive efficiency for the entire year. And it shouldn’t be all that hard for them to do it. Markelle Fultz is a solid point-of-attack defender, and he’s good for a highlight-reel block every other night. Franz Wagner looks like he’ll be one of the best multi-positional defenders in the league very soon. And Wendell Carter Jr. is one of the better help defenders in basketball at the center position, even if he doesn’t quite rack up blocks. He seems to always be in the right place, and he’s better at defending the perimeter than most on switches. With those three in the starting lineup, the team will continue to be tough to score on.
Orlando then has young guys like Anthony Black and Jalen Suggs to disrupt opposing guards. And Jonathan Isaac was one of the more versatile defenders in basketball before injuries derailed his career. If he can come close to returning to full strength, there won’t be many members of this rotation that can’t hold their own defensively. Even vets like Gary Harris and Joe Ingles know how to hold their own as team defenders.
The question with the Magic is whether they can take a step forward offensively. Only four teams in basketball had a worse offensive rating than Orlando last season, and a big part of the reason for that is that only four teams made fewer threes per game than the Magic. Jacking up threes isn’t a requirement in the NBA, but teams that don’t shoot well from behind the three-point line put themselves at a big mathematical disadvantage. So, Orlando will be hoping that drafting Jett Howard, who shot 36.8% from deep on 7.3 attempts per game, and signing Ingles, a career 40.8% three-point shooter, will help with spacing. The Magic are also banking on some of the young guys to continue working on their jumpers.
The bright side for Orlando is that Wagner and second-year forward Paolo Banchero have the goods offensively. They look like one of the league’s best young duos and they’re going to terrorize opponents for the next decade.
Wagner is a smooth-shooting wing who can handle the ball, and he utilizes his length and savvy footwork to get himself to the rim. He averaged 18.6 points per game in 2022-23, and he should hit the 20-point mark this season. Wagner looked like a future star playing for Germany in the FIBA World Cup, and he’ll now try to carry that momentum into the season. Meanwhile, Banchero averaged 20.0 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game as a rookie last season. Mosley recently said that the forward is a combination of LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and Jayson Tatum. Given he’s 6-foot-10 with a massive frame and the ability to score and facilitate, it isn’t hard to see why Mosley believes that. Banchero is a load to defend in half-court situations, and he’s a terror in transition. If the former Duke star ever develops a jumper, then look out.
Fultz is also a player that can be impossible to guard. Sure, his jumper is pretty much nonexistent at this point, but he’s a walking paint touch with his ability to attack the rim. That’s a luxury that not many teams have at the point guard position.
All in all, the pieces are in place for Orlando to become a top-20 offense this season. And with the way the team defends, that’d likely be good enough for the Magic to be a profitable team to bet on. They were actually 45-35-2 ATS last season, but this year’s group has loftier goals. And Orlando also happens to be armed with trade assets, which means the team could potentially upgrade before the trade deadline.
During the exit interview process and throughout the offseason, Magic players up and down the roster thoroughly expressed their desire to make the playoffs during the 2023-24 season.
Those expectations have been echoed by the fanbase and members of the media alike who hope to see the team build on their strong finish to the prior campaign.
“I get that there’s going to be expectations,” said Magic Head Coach Jamahl Mosley during a one-on-one interview from his office at the AdventHealth Training Center. “We’ve talked to each one of the players. Embrace whatever those expectations are. I also go into that saying we’re not going to change who we are and what we’ve done to this point from a work side of things. So, we’re going to work every day.”
The final part of Mosley’s statement rings true. Since his arrival, the 15th head coach in franchise history has emphasized mastering the process rather than focusing on potential future results. He’s been steadfast in his belief that by making incremental improvement and winning the day, the long-term results will take care of themselves.
“It’s a process. A lot of teams will use the playoffs as the goal. That’s where they want to go,” Mosley explained. “There are 29 other teams that are saying it. Everybody wants to get there. There’s nothing wrong with that. In that same vein, you cannot skip steps. You have to go through the process every single day and it’s what our guys know. The work that it takes to get there. Being close to that play-in game last year gave our guys a sense of the intensity, the work you have to put in, the attention to detail you have to have, and the trust and belief that you have to have in one another.”
Biggest Question: What’s Next For Paolo Banchero And Franz Wagner?
Any discussion of the Magic’s potential success for this season and beyond starts with franchise cornerstones Banchero and Wagner.
This is both obvious and also the correct question to ask. For teams on the rise, there is often a point in which it becomes clear that every player is not a “core player” for the future, and that could happen with some of the guards (see below) in Orlando. There is a pretty good feeling that Banchero and Wagner are core pieces, however, and Banchero is coming off a Rookie of the Year campaign after being drafted No. 1 overall. That is usually a formula for at least a long, fruitful career at the NBA level, and Wagner’s versatile, effective game makes him the envy of many teams and general managers across the league. Banchero finished his inaugural campaign ranking first in points (20.0 per game), fifth in rebounds (6.9), and third in assists (3.7) per game among first-year players.
With that out of the way, the big question is whether there is a real, contending-level team to be built around Banchero and Wagner as the top two, or even two of the top three, pieces on the squad. Banchero faced real efficiency issues (52.9 percent true shooting) as a rookie and isn’t a dynamic off-ball threat at this juncture. Wagner, meanwhile, had a standout sophomore season. The 6-foot-10 forward made the league’s 10th most shots on drives, scored the ninth-most fourth-quarter points, improved his 3-point shooting percentage (36 percent), and went 42.1 percent from 3-point range in catch-and-shoot situations – the 17th best mark among players who took at least 200 of them, according to Second Spectrum tracking data.
Wagner has almost no uncertainty as a secondary piece after a season in which he averaged 18.6 points on 58.9 percent true shooting, but can he scale up? Orlando’s supporting cast might be what dictates win-loss success in 2023-24, but in the big picture, it’s all about Banchero and Wagner for the Magic. This season could begin to paint a very, very intriguing picture.
STAR WATCH
PAOLO BANCHERO
Banchero ran away with the 2022-23 Kia Rookie of the Year award, getting 98 of the 100 first-place votes. The 6-foot-10 native of Seattle averaged 20.0 points and 6.9 rebounds, scored 20 or more 40 times, got up 15.6 shots nightly to lead the Magic’s young core and finished ninth in the NBA in free throw attempts.
Roster needs called for Team USA to cast Banchero as a backup center in the FIBA World Cup competition this summer, but he’ll be back to his ball-handling, face-up ways with Orlando. Now, like Joel Embiid, Luka Doncic and Zion Williamson before him – each of whom averaged 20 points as a rookie – Banchero can shoot for an All-Star berth in Year 2. That, more involved defense and leadership could help the Magic reach the playoffs.
The Magic handed Banchero the keys to the offense from day one and he’s certainly validated their decision. In addition to his playmaking, he also uses his impressive ball-handling and leaping ability to blow by defenders and posterize them, as demonstrated in his 2023-24 preseason debut:
While his shooting percentages leave much to be desired (42.7 percent from the field, 29.8 percent from three, and 73.8 percent from the line), that is to be expected with such a young player. However, he showed notable improvement as a shooter after the All-Star break. Before the All-Star break, Banchero posted 41.9 and 28.1 percent clips from the field and three respectively. After the All-Star break, those percentages climbed up to 44.8 and 35.5 respectively, per NBA.com.
Banchero has lived up to the billing of a No.1 overall draft pick and has already shown he can be a franchise cornerstone for the Magic at the ripe age of 20. With that said, Banchero doesn’t look like your average 20-year-old. He is 6-foot-10, weighs 250 pounds, and is built like a bull. It is extremely rare to see such a young player come into the league with Banchero’s physique.
He has shown an ability to thrive in transition as a player who possesses a unique blend of speed, athleticism, and strength. Banchero has a lot to improve on the defensive side of the ball, but he has the physical tools to be a solid, if not good NBA defender given said combination of size, strength, and athleticism.
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