NBA PREVIEW : TROUBLE LOOMS IN PHILLY.
The Philadelphia 76ers were the East’s 3-seed a year ago and saw Joel Embiid take home his first MVP award, but any positive momentum came to a screeching halt when they blew a 3-2 series lead in the conference semis to the Celtics. Since then, things have only deteriorated with the James Harden trade request, which still has not been resolved, throwing their offseason into chaos.
Philadelphia has been the center of turmoil this offseason, and it all centers around James Harden who requested a trade back in June. Since the request, Harden has openly called the president of basketball operations Daryl Morey a liar, and he told anyone who would listen that the relationship between him and the team is all but dead.
This situation becomes even more fascinating now that the smoke has cleared from the Damian Lillard saga, and Harden remains on the team. Morey has played hardball with the likes of Ben Simmons in the past, so it is a safe bet that Harden will be on the team when the season begins. However, how engaged will he be when on the floor?
If this relationship can be fixed, Philadelphia returns one of the best offensive duos in the NBA. When Harden and Joel Embiid were on the floor, the 76ers outscored opponents by 9.2 points per 100 possessions, and the team ranked in the 96th percentile in offensive efficiency (122.4). When Philadelphia ran a pick-and-roll with Harden as the ball-handler and Embiid as the roll-man, they averaged 1.12 points per possession. Those are all statistics that the 76ers can achieve once more if all parties are in.
Those two are also among the best isolation scorers in the league. Philadelphia averaged 1.10 points per possession in Harden isolation plays and 1.07 points per possession in Embiid isolation plays. It’s rare to have two players capable of scoring as efficiently when working on their own, but the 76ers have just that on this roster. They also have a solid supporting cast.
Tyrese Maxey has emerged as one of the great young players in the league. Maxey had his most efficient season ever, averaging 121.4 points per 100 shot attempts. He improved the 76ers’ net rating by 2.4 points every 100 possessions on the floor. When Maxey was on the 76ers ranked in the 90th percentile in points added per 100 plays in transition (+4.1) and the 95th in transition offensive efficiency (140.0). He’s a phenomenal combo guard who can run the show if needed – Philadelphia had a +3.1 net rating when he was at point guard – but thrives when he is off the ball.
Tobias Harris and P.J. Tucker also returned this season which means the 76ers have their starting lineup that outscored opponents by 13.1 points per 100 possessions back together. The front office also did a tremendous job of filling out the rest of the roster behind their starting five.
De’Anthony Melton and Paul Reed are the main returning bench pieces. Among the reserves are newcomers Patrick Beverley, Kelly Oubre Jr., Mo Bamba and Danny Green. It is not a perfect bench by any stretch, but you do have two good backcourt defenders in Beverley and Melton, and a scoring presence – albeit an inefficient one – in Oubre.
The Sixers lost several rotation players to free agency — Georges Niang, Jalen McDaniels, Shake Milton — and did little except re-sign Montrezl Harrell (who tore his ACL), sign a ludicrous number of backup centers, and sneak Patrick Beverley into the fold.
The 76ers also figure to be an above-average defensive team once more, as long as Embiid stays healthy. With Embiid on the floor, the 76ers allowed 112.1 points per 100 possessions, compared to the 116.8 they allowed when he was off the floor. He has never been an elite shot blocker, but he is among the best defensive rebounders, allowing the 76ers to snuff out opponent possessions after one miss. Tucker gives them a primary wing defender as well, and with the two guards off the bench, the dropoff on that end of the floor should not be stark when Nick Nurse goes to his reserves.
It will be fascinating to see what the betting market does with Philadelphia this season. If you include the postseason, the 76ers were the best cover team in the NBA with a 54-38-1 ATS record. They were among the best home teams as well, with a 61-32 SU/54-38-1 ATS record at the Wells Fargo Center.
However, the dilemma with Harden looms, and we could see the market try to short the 76ers, with the thought being that the off-court issues bleed into the performance on the court. If Harden buys in and gives Philadelphia a full effort this will be one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference once again, but only time will tell how this works out.
Biggest Question: How Engaged Is James Harden?/What Do They Get In Return For A Harden Trade?
There really is only one thing that matters right now for the Sixers as it pertains to staying in the contender, and that’s what happens with Harden. If he stays, will he play at the level of last year, when he legitimately won them multiple playoff games with his performance (in spite of his reputation as a postseason player). If he goes, can they come close to replacing what he brings this team. While Harden’s scoring output is nice, it’s really his skills as a passer that would be missed the most by the Sixers. They don’t have anyone on the roster remotely close to him when it comes to passing and court vision, and on a team that revolves around a dominant big man, losing that would compound their issues.
Embiid is a dominant offensive force, but his ability to impact the game to the level he’s capable is dependent on having guards who can get him the ball on time and on his spots. That’s not the strength of Tyrese Maxey, and there is no one on the Clippers (the only suitor for Harden, by all accounts) who could be sent to Philly in return that would help fill that void. That means not only are you losing the production from Harden as a scorer, but you’re likely going to see a dip in Embiid’s efficiency and effectiveness if he’s not able to get the ball when he carves out space inside before defenders can work to move him off his spot. There’s a reason Philly isn’t jumping at the chance to trade a guy who clearly doesn’t want to be there, and is probably what the Clippers are working to find in the form of a third team to add to the deal.
STAR WATCH
JOEL EMBIID
Usually when you’re talking about the NBA’s reigning MVP in this kind of article, they’re going to be entering a new season on a high note. But this is the Sixers. Of course things have to be weirder with worse vibes than that.
Despite winning his first MVP award and putting on an absolute show in the regular season, Embiid ended the playoffs with an extremely disappointing showing. When he and James Harden needed to show up the most to close the Sixers’ last two second-round games against the Celtics, they came up well short. Again, Embiid wasn’t fully healthy and that does need to be considered. But that’s a problem in itself if Embiid playing below 100 percent in the playoffs is the norm.
For now, Harden is on the team but completely mentally checked out. And seeing as it should only be a matter of time before he’s traded, there’s no denying that the team’s offense won’t be the same without him. The Sixers’ offense hummed to the elite tune of a 117 offensive rating last regular season (which ranked third in the NBA), often led by Harden and Embiid’s dominant pick-and-roll connection.
Embiid was a dominant near 30-point-per-game scorer before Harden arrived and he’ll continue to be that after. The main reason Embiid has climbed to MVP level is also because he’s continually developed all parts of his game. That said, it’s also no accident that he had the most efficient regular season of his career in 2022-23 (with a 65.5 true shooting percentage). Harden — from his great entry passes to their pick-and-roll play — set up Embiid with many of the easiest looks he’s ever had.
How Embiid adjusts his shot profile without Harden, and how the Sixers (primarily Tyrese Maxey as he takes on a larger role) can facilitate alongside him will be one of the most interesting things to watch for Embiid as next season gets underway. Leaning into Maxey’s pace, both in transition and through quick-twitch half-court drives and two-man play, would be one positive.
Bearing in mind Embiid’s track record of improvement, it’ll also be interesting to see if he’s honed any new tricks. As his trainer Drew Hanlen shared on a recent episode of LB’s Out of Site podcast, Embiid has spent a lot of time working on his floater and hook shot this summer. Could any improvement with those shots — especially the floater, a shot which Embiid hasn’t typically used that much in the past — help him in pick-and-roll situations, even if Harden isn’t there to assist for easier looks?
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