NBA PREVIEW : WEMBY-MANIA GRIPS SAN ANTONIO. CAN HE LEAD THIS YOUNG TEAM TO SUCCESS?
The San Antonio Spurs’ 2023-24 season tips off on October 25 against the Mavericks. Of course this will be the NBA debut of Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs should improve on their 22-60 record last season, but expect them to have another lottery pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.
The Spurs have quietly put together a roster that is rife with young talent, and this team could surprise people with its competitiveness this season on a night-to-night basis.
The Wemby effect is already showing as the Spurs have 19 nationally televised games, up from just four games last season.
First, we should start with some news about Wembanyama. His role with this team will be fascinating, and it seems that the team wants to roll him out slowly. It has been reported that Wembanyama will play power forward instead of center to limit the wear and tear on his body during his first 82-game season. If that is true, it is a somewhat big deal, especially for those looking to bet some season-long futures on Wembanyama.
Regardless of his role, Wembanyama will be a massive addition to a Spurs team that finished last in non-garbage time defensive efficiency by allowing 120.9 points per 100 possessions. Rim protection was one of the biggest issues on that end of the floor. San Antonio allowed the fourth-most attempts within four feet of the basket and allowed opponents to shoot 67.6% on those shots. Even as a help defender, Wembanyama will improve the Spurs’s rim defense.
That improved rim defense should lead to an improvement in San Antonio’s halfcourt defense which allowed the most points per 100 plays last season (104.8). If that improves, then the Spurs could suddenly look like a competent defensive team themselves, as they finished 13th in opponent points added through transition offense (2.6).
The real question will be how this team improves offensively, but it has the pieces to be much better on that end of the floor.
Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson both showed some impressive scoring prowess last season. Vassell averaged 18.5 points per game and shot 38.7% on 7.0 3-point attempts per game. Johnson was San Antonio’s leading scorer at 22.0 points per game. The duo were two of the Spurs’ top three players in usage rate (Zach Collins was second), and both have shown efficiency improvement throughout their careers.
Tre Jones also took a huge step forward last season, posting a career-best +5.0 efficiency differential and helping to improve the Spurs’ offensive rating by 3.6 points per 100 possessions on the floor while assisting on 30.5% of the team’s made baskets.
Jeremy Sochan is one of the most intriguing second-year players this season. He ranked in the 73rd percentile in efficiency differential (+3.7) and the 91st percentile in offensive rebounding rate (6.3%) as a rookie. His contributions on offense will be limited to transition opportunities and as a finisher, but he is one of the many young and talented players on this roster.
The offense is going to be somewhat clunky for the Spurs, especially if the projected starting lineup is true. Sochan and Wembanyama on the floor together means San Antonio could have two inconsistent shooters together at once. Wembanyama is a versatile offensive big, but he shot just 27.5% from distance last season for Metropolitans 92. He will space the floor because he will take the shots, but shooting could still be an issue for a team that finished 23rd in 3-point percentage (35.5%).
Still, this team is intriguing. It also has a decent mix of veterans like Cedi Osman, but every one of those players is on an expiring deal and could be flipped by the time the trade deadline comes around. It would not be shocking to see the Spurs get off to a good start once again this season, and at the very least, improve on their 33-49 ATS record from last year.
San Antonio was one of the primary candidates to tank last season due to the allure of Victor Wembanyama. Now that the French phenom is in silver and black, there is no massive prize to shoot for at the top of the draft. The NBA also implemented its new rules in order to keep teams like the Spurs from resting players at the tail end of the season, so the effort should be there from the front office most of the season.
How the team will handle Wembanyama’s workload is a question though. There are already indications that the team wants to ease him into his first NBA season. Whether that is executed via frequent rest or minutes restrictions remains to be seen, but knowing the team’s most talented player is due for some sort of limitation is worrisome for those looking to bet the win total over.
Positive Residual has them with the toughest strength of schedule this season (.527), but much of that stems from a high amount of games at medium to high altitude. They only have 13 back-to-backs, and their net rest advantage is positive (+2), albeit small. Overall, they only have nine games in which they will have a true rest disadvantage.
Aside from adding Wemby during the draft, the Spurs also found themselves involved in numerous trades during the offseason. In fact, San Antonio was included in four different trades and took on some unwanted contracts in order to add future value.
Cedi Osman, Reggie Bullock, Cam Payne, and Lamar Stevens were all dealt to the Spurs this summer. Only Osman remains on their roster entering the 2023-24 season, as Bullock, Payne, and Stevens were all waived by the team. In these three trades, the Spurs were able to acquire a first-round pick and two second-round picks. During the draft, they also acquired two future second-round picks from the Minnesota Timberwolves in exchange for the draft rights to Leonard Miller.
Only Osman remains of the 4 players dealt the Spurs in the off-season
Building for the future continues to be the main point of emphasis for the Spurs’ front office, hence why they were willing to agree to the trades made. By taking on some of these contracts as dead cap space right now, San Antonio has paved the way for continued development.
The Spurs did not lose much value whatsoever this summer, but Keita Bates-Diop’s departure is worth noting. Bates-Diop averaged 9.7 points per game last season while shooting 39.4 percent from three-point range. He really proved to be an improved shooter and defender at either forward spot last season, which is why the 27-year-old should be able to help the Phoenix Suns coming off the bench.
Wembanyama’s arrival, as well as the team holding onto Osman, resulted in the Spurs not really having a need for Bates-Diop anymore. Not wanting to spend any extra money in free agency and not having a roster spot available, it made the most sense to let KBD walk this offseason.
STAR WATCH
VICTOR WEMBANYAMA
The trademark of coach Gregg Popovich’s San Antonio Spurs is: Defense, defense and more defense. And for this contest he will have better elements to be able to develop his classic playing style such as Tre Jones and Devin Vassell. Each one will occupy the position of point guard and guard of the team respectively. Both players are capable of playing without the ball and marking rivals very well. Ball rotation and generating chances for his teammates are some of the arguments. Additionally, the 2.24 meter tall Wembanyama will play as a power forward. While Zach Collins, 2.11 meters tall, will be the center. Between the two of them they will be able to defend the low post very well for the Spurs.
Victor Wembanyama is the new face of the Spurs after being selected first overall in the 2023 NBA Draft and he is ready to help steer this organization back to its championship ways, something he was accustomed to watching growing up with Parker being one of his idols.
Picking first overall is nothing new to the Spurs, as they’ve held that spot two different times before selecting Wembanyama this summer. The first time was in 1987 when they drafted David Robinson first overall and the second was in 1997 when they took Tim Duncan. Both players turned out alright, as they each went on to win championships with the Spurs en route to making the Hall of Fame.
With the guidance of these two legends- as well as other former Spurs greats- Wembanyama will look to follow in the footsteps of Robinson and Duncan. As good as Wemby is and projects to be long-term, he is not the only positive factor on San Antonio’s roster entering the 2023-24 season.
Having just two players on their roster who’ve been in the league for at least six years, the Spurs are one of the youngest teams in the NBA. However, they have all been growing and learning the best way to win games together.
Besides his length, Wemby is a special player because of all the things he can do. Many 7-foot-4 players that have entered the league are back-to-the-basket type centers who cannot move much and wind up doing all of their damage in the paint.
For the French big man, his game revolves around setting his teammates up for success and playing perimeter-to-paint. He’s as elusive as a guard, can pull up and shoot on the wing, and has the rim-protecting skills of a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. No player in this league is going to be able to block Wemby’s shot and as he gets stronger, he will become impossible to move around.
As the 2023-24 season is set to begin, Wembanyama is clearly the favorite for the Rookie of the Year award. The key for him finding success right away will be to fully embrace being a rookie and not trying to do too much during his first NBA season. So far, Wembanyama has shown all the signs of humbleness and the willingness to learn from Gregg Popovich. This is why he is going to be a very special player in San Antonio for many years to come.
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