NBA PREVIEW : WHO'S NOT EXCITED ABOUT THE THUNDER?

Every year, there seems to be one NBA team that comes into the season with the expectation that they’ll turn their potential into something great. As we approach the start of the 2023-24 campaign, that team is shaping up to be the Oklahoma City Thunder, which have all the makings of being a juggernaut at some point in the not-too-distant future.

After catching the rest of the league off guard last year, the Oklahoma City Thunder enter the 2023-24 season as a likely playoff contender.

A surprising 40-42 campaign last season helped put the Thunder on the map as they finished a win shy of a playoff berth. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s emergence to superstardom and the development of one of the brightest young cores help this case.

The Thunder are in the middle of their honeymoon stage. OKC overachieved last season but now enters this season with a certain level of expected success.

There is no hotter commodity this off-season in the NBA than the Oklahoma City Thunder, and for good reason. The Thunder are 96-66-4 ATS (59.2%) over the last two seasons, and they have one of the best young players in the league in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the roster. This season, the betting market is expecting a strong leap into contention for a top-six seed in the Western Conference, and it is hard to argue against such expectations.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the hottest commodities in the NBA presently.

First and foremost, the Thunder have the key piece in a burgeoning superstar that is Gilgeous-Alexander. He ranked in the 93rd percentile at his position in points per 100 shot attempts (125.9), the 93rd percentile in offensive efficiency differential (+6.8) and finished fourth in scoring (31.4 points per game).

For a team to contend it needs a ball-dominant star who can score at every level, and Gilgeous-Alexander can do that. He even showed an improved stepback 3-point jumper in the FIBA World Cup, which would be an incredible addition to his offensive arsenal, as he shot just 35.8% from deep last season and only took 10% of his attempts from that area of the floor.

The team also has a brilliant roster of young talent surrounding Gilgeous-Alexander.

Josh Giddey is a brilliant offensive player who averaged 16.6 points, 7.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists in his sophomore season. His efficiency from deep can improve – he shot 32.5% on 3.1 attempts – but he’s a great facilitator who can run the offense at an effective level.

Josh Giddey averaged 16.6 points, 7.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists in his sophomore season in the NBA .

Luguentz Dort is an extremely talented defender who can take on the best perimeter scorer on any team in the league, including the likes of Luka Doncic. He is not an insanely efficient shooter, but he shot 39.8% from the corners last season, so teams must account for him as a spot-up shooter.

Luguentz Dort shot 39.8% from the corners last season in the NBA

Jalen Williams emerged as an incredible talent last season as well and pushed Paolo Banchero for Rookie of the Year. He averaged 14.1 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.3 assists on 52.1% shooting from the floor. Williams also proved to be an effective offensive rebounder who grabbed 3.6% of his teammates’ missed shots last season.

Jalen Williams averaged 14.1 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.3 assists on 52.1% shooting from the floor

There is no denying this roster is laden with talent, and the returns for bettors have been tremendous. So, it is no surprise that this team is favored to make the postseason and has a win total on par with a team like Sacramento that won the third seed in the Western Conference last season. However, it’s not a perfect team, and there are some issues the Thunder must figure out if they are to meet the expectations thrust upon them this season.

NBA PREVIEW : THINGS LOOKING UP FOR THE KNICKS, CAN THEY GO A STEP BETTER?

Oklahoma City struggled to find scoring options outside of Gilgeous-Alexander last season. He led the team with 31.4 points per game but was just one of four double-digit scorers for the Thunder last season. When he left the floor, Oklahoma City went from 117.6 points per 100 possessions to 110.8 and their net rating suffered by 4.2 points per 100 possessions in those minutes.

This team does have concerns on defense as well.

Dort might be an elite on-ball defender, but the team’s defensive rating suffered with Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey on the floor. Giddey in particular – due to his lack of quick-twitch speed and athleticism – was constantly taken advantage of by quicker perimeter players. They allowed 114.5 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time last season, and they allowed the 10th-highest frequency of wide-open 3-point attempts.

Chet Holmgren’s presence should help ease some of the defensive concerns, especially regarding rim protection. Holmgren averaged 3.5 blocks in Summer League play and practiced with Team USA as part of the select team, which allowed him to work on his game. Oklahoma City desperately needed a center last season, and Holmgren fills a massive need.

Chet Holmgren averaged 3.5 blocks in Summer League play

Despite the defensive concerns, this team will be extremely productive this season. The concern from a betting standpoint is that the value has been sucked out by the popularity this season. Oklahoma City was able to cover games at such a high rate because they were underdogs in only 32 games in the last two seasons. This season, the percentage of games they will be favored will be much higher, likely leading to a depressed ATS record.

Biggest Question: Are They Ready?

Try to find one person in the basketball world who isn’t excited about the Thunder. It’s really hard! Last season, Oklahoma City was quite the surprise, as the team went 40-42, earned a playoff berth, and won one game during the Play-In Tournament before getting bounced by the Minnesota Timberwolves. Their offense is a blast, and is led by a legitimate superstar in All-NBA First Team selection Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Jalen Williams was one of the best rookies in the league last year. Josh Giddey took a leap during his second year. There’s a seemingly endless supply of promising young players, all of whom get better and better the longer they spend in Mark Daigneault’s system.

All of this is to say that the Oklahoma City Thunder are a very trendy pick to make some noise in the Western Conference — maybe not compete with the Denver Nuggets and the Phoenix Suns, but be in the playoff hunt all regular season and be a handful once the postseason roll around. But of course, any team can have hype around them. Not every team, however, turn that hype into results, and that’s ultimately the challenge that the Thunder will face.

How do they respond to that first losing streak that brings them down to earth a little bit? Can they survive a major injury to one of their key contributors? Do they have frontcourt depth in the event Chet Holmgren needs some time to get used to life in the NBA? Can they take a step forward on at least one end of the floor — the team was 13th in defensive rating and 16th in offensive rating last year, and while those numbers are solid, there is plenty of room to get better.

The good news is they have a no-doubt star leading the charge and a roster of young, hungry players. Leaps don’t have to happen, but betting on the Thunder to make one seems safe.

STAR WATCH

JOSH GIDDEY

Gilgeous-Alexander’s massive leap into stardom might have overshadowed Giddey’s own improvements in Year 2. Giddey averaged an impressive 16.6 points per game, 7.9 rebounds per game, and 6.2 assists per game, and has learned to share responsibilities with Shai as a primary option. He’s already an exceptional playmaker and rebounder, but his scoring efficiency will ramp up with better precision from deep.

Giddey only shot 32% from three last season but started to look a lot more comfortable as the season wore along. SGA commands so much attention and can deliver passes to Giddey’s shooting picket when he spots up. As long as he knocks down open looks, Giddey’s versatility allows him to play next to any of OKC’s other guards, including SGA, Tre Mann, and rookie Cason Wallace.

Defensively, both Giddey and Shai have a bit of an unknown upside by nature of their size. Luguentz Dort does an excellent job mixing it up against various opponents but Giddey and Shai must work on limiting penetration and cutting off angles.